The Collapse of the Russia-Iran Military Alliance: What Went Wrong?

Russia and Iran – two key geopolitical players in the Middle East – sought to build a powerful military alliance centered around their shared involvement in Syria, using the Assad regime as a strategic foundation. However, with the fall of the regime, their collaboration unraveled, exposing deep cracks in their partnership and significantly undermining their joint military ambitions.

The goal of Russia and Iran has been to establish a strong and strategic alliance that serves their long-term interests. This alliance is not merely about cooperation but about creating a partnership that enhances their global and regional influence while countering Western dominance. 

The reason why both countries want to achieve this goal is that it offers them crucial advantages in the military, economic, and political spheres. 

Militarily, Iran secures access to advanced Russian weaponry, training, and intelligence sharing, strengthening its regional network of proxy forces. Economically both nations face heavy Western sanctions and seek alternative trade routes, energy partnerships, and financial systems to lessen the economic isolation. Politically their partnership offers diplomatic backing against Western pressure, adding to their ability to challenge the U.S. and European policies in the region and presenting as a united front in international organizations.

In order to achieve these goals, Russia and Iran initially focused on deepening their military cooperation, especially in Syria, where the 2 countries intervened to support the Assad regime. The reason why Syria became the foundation of their military partnership was that Assad’s survival was critical for maintaining their influence in the region. Russia provided airpower, advanced weaponry, and strategic military coordination while Iran supplied ground forces through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and allied militias including the Lebanese group Hezbollah. The joint military effort allowed Assad to reclaim significant territories, effectively shifting the balance of power in Syria. 

Additionally, arms deals strengthened their military ties, with Russia supplying Iran with missile systems and drones. However, their cooperation was not limited to the battlefield: the 2 countries also aligned in intelligence-sharing and military training programs. 

The military cooperation between Russia and Iran initially proved effective, allowing them to sustain the Assad regime and secure a foothold in Syria. However, their victories did not translate into long-term stability. 

Despite Assad reclaiming large portions of Syrian territory, insurgent groups remained active, and external factors such as Turkey and Israel continued to challenge Iranian and Russian influence. Moreover, while Russia and Iran successfully aligned their interests in Syria, their broader alliance began facing structural weaknesses. Tensions emerged over strategic differences, particularly regarding Iran’s ambitions in Syria and Russia’s broader geopolitical considerations. While Iran sought to expand its proxy network across the region, Russia aimed to consolidate its gains without overextending its military commitments.

After the fall of the Assad regime, the situation changed drastically. This event dismantled the primary foundation of their military collaboration, exposing weaknesses in their strategy and causing an immediate divergence in their interests. For Iran, this loss was particularly damaging as it disrupted its regional network and weakened its ability to project power. This forced Iran to intensify its focus on maintaining influence through proxy groups and securing additional weaponry to counter its regional rivals. Russia, in turn, has no incentive to engage in further military operations in the Middle East, especially since supporting Iran no longer secures any lasting influence for Moscow. Without Syria, there is little that unites Russia and Iran militarily.

Russia, preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, urgently seeks allies to provide material and manpower support. The large-scale war has depleted its forces prompting it to take towards partners like North Korea, which can supply soldiers. However, Iran has historically been reluctant to deploy its own soldiers, preferring to rely on proxy forces even in the Middle Eastern conflicts that directly impact its interests. As a result, Iran is a less reliable military partner. 

Iran, on the other hand, finds itself in a weakened regional position after a series of military and strategic defeats. 

The loss of Syria, Hezbollah’s setbacks in Lebanon, and Hamas’ diminishing strengths in Gaza have left Iran vulnerable. To regain its influence, Tehran urgently needs military support to sustain and expand its operations in the Middle East. However, since Russia lost its physical foothold in Syria, it has no incentive to intervene further in Middle Eastern conflicts, leaving Iran without a strong military ally. 

Recently, Russia and Iran have signed a new strategic agreement. However, this agreement does not force any party to commit to each other militarily, which would open a new page of partnership. Rather, it formalized the cooperation they already had, and given the drastic change of the setting with the fall of the Assad regime, it reduces their alliance to mostly economic and diplomatic cooperation.  

Overall, the transformation of the Russia-Iran alliance from a military partnership to an economic and diplomatic one demonstrates the fragility of their collaboration. The fall of the Assad regime exposed the limitations of their military ambitions, forcing both countries to shift their strategies. Without Syria as a unifying factor, their alliance is no longer driven by shared military goals but rather by economic necessity and geopolitical pragmatism. While they may continue to align against Western influence, their partnership is no longer defined by coordinated military efforts.