The Cost of 36 Assaults per Kilometer: Russia’s War Math Fails

Today, we will discuss the massive escalation in the number of Russian assaults on the battlefield in recent months, an all-out push that is testing the limits of both Russian and Ukrainian strategy and stamina. The reshaped tempo of the war can potentially change the trajectory of negotiations before any genuine ceasefire comes into effect. 

In March, Russian troops increased offensive operations in several directions, including Sumy, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, Zaporizhia, and Liman.

Despite this major surge in assaults throughout the month, the actual territorial gains achieved by Russian forces have dropped to a 10-month low. The intensified attacks appear to be part of a broader strategy to take as much territory as possible before a potential ceasefire freezes the frontline, or the Ukrainians use it to further fortify their defenses. This was most visible in the last week of March, when Ukrainian forces recorded over 200 enemy assaults each day, a stark indicator of the sheer scale of Russian attempts to push forward across multiple fronts.

While the number of attacks has reached record highs, the results on the ground tell a different story. In March, Russian forces managed to capture 133 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, roughly the same as they gained in April and June of 2024. This is a far cry from November 2024, when monthly gains were nearly six times higher.

The Pokrovsk and Liman sectors saw the most intense fighting, with Russian forces especially active in border areas near the Kursk region, attempting to cross the international border and enter the Ukrainian Sumy Oblast. Yet despite the renewed aggression, Ukrainian defenses have largely held and have even managed to deal heavy losses to the enemy. The Ukrainian military, despite facing fatigue and operational challenges after 3 years of non-stop combat on a thousand-kilometer-long frontline, has proven capable of minimizing Russian advances and absorbing the shock of these renewed offensives.

The high number of attacks is coming at a significant cost for Russia. In March 2025, Russian forces experienced significant losses with personnel casualties for the month totaling approximately 41,160, averaging around 1,300 per day. This figure represents the fifth-highest monthly total since the war began, reflecting the high cost of the intensified assaults. In addition to personnel losses, Russians suffered substantial losses to their equipment reserves with 3,545 vehicles and 1,644 artillery pieces destroyed, setting a new monthly record for equipment losses.

Each square kilometer of territory gained by Russian forces, now required a staggering 36 assault actions on average, up from just 7 in November, costing the Russian army around 310 dead soldiers per square kilometer gained. This growing inefficiency reflects the increasingly depleted state of Russian combat capabilities, forcing Russian commanders to rely on mass infantry assaults with poorly trained troops. Reports from captured Russian soldiers reveal that some are receiving as little as three or four days of basic training before being sent to the front.

Logistics problems and overstretched supply lines are compounding these issues, further limiting Russia’s ability to sustain high-intensity operations over time.

At the same time, Ukraine's edge in drone warfare continues to play a decisive role as drone operators, many of whom now have years of battlefield experience, are using drones to devastating effect. In the Pokrovsk direction, for example, one Ukrainian operator reported that his 3-man unit consistently destroyed over 50 Russian soldiers within a single day. It is a major factor contributing to Russia’s mounting losses and lack of progress despite overwhelming numbers of assaults. With each passing month, Russian offensives seem to be achieving less and costing more.

Overall, with the increased tempo in the last weeks, the Russian military is burning through its reserves at an unsustainable pace for minimal territorial returns. Ukrainian defense lines are holding with growing tactical sophistication, which is inflicting heavy casualties on Russian attackers. The question is no longer whether the Russians can break through, but how long they can continue this costly tempo without collapsing.

If Russian forces continue to bleed resources at this rate, they risk not only jeopardizing future offensives but also exposing recent gains to potential Ukrainian counterattacks, nullifying the little progress they made.