How Gulf States Ended Iran’s Grip on Syria

The unexpected fall of Assad and the collapse of Iran’s influence have created a volatile power vacuum in the Middle East, forcing the Gulf states into a high-stakes race against time to fill the power vacuum. With Syria fragmented and rival actors like Turkey and Iran repositioning for influence, Gulf leaders took a rapid and decisive action.

The Gulf states’ goal is to dismantle Iran’s foothold in Syria by supporting opposition forces capable of disrupting Tehran’s supply lines and military presence. 

The reason why the Gulf states wanted to achieve this goal is that they viewed Iran as a direct threat to their security and regional influence. Removing Assad, Tehran’s strongest ally, was critical to dismantling Iran’s foothold in Syria and curbing its ability to project power across the region, severing the land corridor stretching from Tehran to the Mediterranean, which allowed Iran to arm Hezbollah and expand its regional influence. Beyond Syria, limiting Iran’s influence was also critical to ensuring that Tehran could not consolidate power across multiple fronts, particularly in Lebanon and Iraq.

In order to achieve this goal, the Gulf states provided financial and military support to various Syrian rebel factions. 

Qatar played a key role in funding groups such as Ahrar al-Sham and, indirectly, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, while Saudi Arabia backed Jaish al-Islam, particularly in the Damascus region. These factions received arms, logistical support, and funding, allowing them to challenge Assad’s forces and gain territorial control. Beyond direct military aid, the Gulf states also worked through diplomatic channels, lobbying Western governments to recognize the opposition and impose harsher sanctions on the Syrian regime. 

Saudi-led efforts attempted to unify exiled opposition to create a cohesive political front against Assad. However, ideological divisions, competition for resources, and external interference fractured the opposition, preventing it from mounting a unified challenge.

As a result of these actions, large parts of Syria fell under opposition control, with Gulf-backed rebels making significant advances in Aleppo, Idlib, and Damascus. 

However, the lack of cohesion among opposition groups, coupled with direct military intervention from Russia and Iran, resulted in a prolonged conflict where opposition forces-maintained control over key areas but lacked the capability to secure total victory.

The turning point came when Assad’s regime collapsed following a rapid offensive by opposition forces, taking advantage of Russia’s distraction and military strain due to the war in Ukraine. The fall of Damascus shattered Iran’s influence in Syria, eliminating its strongest regional ally and disrupting its military supply networks. However, this sudden power vacuum introduced new uncertainties. 

With no centralized authority, Syria fragmented into territories controlled by various factions, each with competing ambitions. The Gulf states saw an opportunity to influence Syria’s reconstruction and governance but also faced new constraints. The absence of a stable central government increased the risk of prolonged instability, and regional actors such as Turkey and Iran sought to assert their own influence over Syria’s future. Additionally, the lack of international consensus on Syria’s post-Assad trajectory left room for competing power struggles that could undermine Gulf-backed efforts to stabilize the country. 

With the new reality in Syria, the Gulf states shifted their approach to focus on securing long-term political and economic influence. To seize the opportunity presented by Assad’s fall, they engaged in diplomatic efforts to stabilize opposition-held areas, providing financial assistance to local administrations and pushing for the reintegration of Syria into regional institutions such as the Arab League. The United Arab Emirates took the lead in normalization efforts, working to establish formal relations with emerging power centers in Syria while balancing against Iranian influence. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, sought to curb the resurgence of extremist groups by supporting moderate factions that could provide governance and security. 

However, these efforts were hindered by the United States sanctions on Syria, limiting reconstruction opportunities and making it difficult to fully integrate Syria into the Gulf’s regional strategy. At the same time, Iran adapted to the new situation by strengthening its ties with non-state actors and expanding its presence in Iraq and Lebanon, ensuring that its influence in the region was not entirely diminished. 

Ultimately, the Gulf states’ intervention in Syria achieved its primary objective of disrupting Iran’s dominance, but their long-term success remains uncertain. The fall of the Assad regime created new opportunities for Gulf influence, but the fragmented political landscape and competing regional interests pose significant challenges. The Gulf states must now navigate complex power dynamics, balance their engagement with international constraints, and ensure that Syria does not once again become a battleground for external rivalries.