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Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from the Liman direction.
Here, Ukrainian forces shattered Russian artillery in record-breaking numbers, crippling Moscow’s plans for a massive offensive in the Borova-Liman sector. Now, as General Drapatyi and the elite Third Assault Corps assemble a ferocious defensive line, incredible losses will become an inevitable reality for the Russian offensive plan.
The Russian goal is to advance to the Oskil and eliminate the major Ukrainian bridgehead here. To achieve this, they are mobilizing a massive number of troops and equipment in this sector, aiming to establish a significant numerical superiority over the Ukrainian defenders.
However, Russian offensive planning relies heavily on massive artillery barrages to pave the way for mechanized and infantry assaults. To take advantage of this, Ukrainians have prioritized the destruction of Russian artillery, aiming to disrupt Russian preparations by preventing them from conducting large preparatory barrages.
To reduce the risk of Ukrainian counter-battery fire and destruction by FPV drones and heavy-lift octocopters, Russian artillery is positioned 12 to 15 kilometers behind the frontlines. However, concealment remains difficult even in these rear areas, as the mostly towed artillery guns are constrained to emplacements with heavy concealment, such as the forest strips along the Krasna River.
Ukrainian drone operators use these constraining factors to make well-educated estimates of Russian firing positions, intensify drone reconnaissance in these directions, to confirm and destroy targets. Russians often follow their artillery doctrine, which says to relocate only after coming under fire, an inflexible approach that only compounds their losses, as accurate Ukrainian drone strikes often only need one hit to disable or destroy the enemy gun. As a result, Ukraine destroyed 1,644 Russian artillery pieces and mortars in March alone, over three times the monthly average of the previous two years. By purely targeting Russian artillery, Ukrainians are forcing the Russians to increasingly relocate and conceal their heavy guns, which significantly weakens the effectiveness of Russian fire support in and of itself.
The sharp rise in Ukrainian combat effectiveness along the eastern front is closely tied to the appointment of General Mykhailo Drapatyi as commander of the Khortytsia Operational-Strategic Group, encompassing all of Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk Oblasts. Since Drapatyi took command, Ukrainian forces have improved both their defensive coordination and battlefield resilience, resulting in a significant increase in Russian losses and operational costs. Already in the first month of Drapatyi's appointment, Russians required 17 assaults to take one square kilometer, more than double of what it was before. By March, it soared to 36 attacks per square kilometer, highlighting that any surge in Russian offensive action this summer will likely result in an even higher attrition rate for Russian forces.
The defense of the Borova sector specifically is significantly bolstered by the new Third Army Corps, formed from the Ukrainian Third Assault Brigade. Expanded to an entire army corps, they now enjoy greater operational autonomy and access to advanced engineering resources to build fortifications. Months of combat have provided them with intimate knowledge of the terrain, allowing them to build each defensive structure exactly where and how it is needed and incorporate it much more effectively into their defensive operations.
At the heart of the corps is the Third Assault Brigade, a well-trained, disciplined, and highly motivated unit that employs NATO-style tactics tailored to the unique battlefield conditions in Ukraine.
This is why the Third Army Corps is modeled after the operational style of the Third Assault Brigade. The Army Corps command continues to integrate the remaining brigades to match the combat effectiveness of the Third Assault Brigade. Its professionalism and strong presence on social media have appealed to thousands of Ukrainian and foreign volunteers, attracting between 1,000 and 2,000 new recruits each month, significantly bolstering their numbers ahead of the Russian summer offensive.
Overall, Russian forces in the Borova–Liman sector are preparing for a major offensive by massing artillery and experienced troops; however, they are suffering heavy losses from Ukrainian counterbattery fire already before they can launch their assaults. Given the persistent attrition of Russian artillery and the surge of new recruits into the Third Assault Corps, Russians are likely to encounter great difficulties in breaching Ukrainian defenses once they decide to launch their summer offensive.
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