EXCLUSIVE: Russia’s Bleeding Army: 80,000 Casualties in Two Months

Today, we will discuss how the Russian military campaign in Ukraine, particularly in the context of its recent offensives near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, illustrates the high human and material costs of the Russian approach. Over the last few months, Russia has intensified its operations, resulting in record losses in personnel and equipment, keeping a staggering rate of more than 1200 killed Russian soldiers per day. 

Russian forces have adopted a strategy described by military analysts as “cumulative assaults,” characterized by continuous waves of small infantry groups with limited support from artillery, aviation, and occasionally armored vehicles. These groups aim to gradually erode Ukrainian defenses rather than achieve rapid breakthroughs. However, this method has led to an extraordinary rate of attrition.

Data by the UK Ministry of Defense suggests that in September and October 2024, Russian forces suffered over 80,000 casualties, with October marking the deadliest month for Russia, averaging 1,345 losses daily. This figure surpasses previous casualty rates and underscores the grinding nature of the war. Since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to US Army officials, Russian casualties have surpassed 600,000, a sharp increase from the 315,000 reported in December 2023. These numbers of losses show that the estimation of the Western partners is very close to that of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and confirms a significant depletion of Russia’s combat power.

One good example is the Russian Central Grouping of Forces, responsible for the area around Pokrovsk, which has a critical reserve of around 15,000 soldiers. With the initial idea to sustain a high offensive tempo in that direction shattered and a sizeable portion of this reserve already used, it continues the Russian trend to use operational reserves as a pool of available manpower for reinforcing depleted units instead of as a cohesive first-echelon penetration force. Due to this, instead of being deployed as such a unified force capable of achieving major operational goals, like the seizure of Pokrovsk, these reserves have been used to reinforce struggling units at different points of the frontline. This approach has prevented decisive breakthroughs in this direction and limited the effectiveness of Russia’s offensives. It also led to one commander complaining in a video about the significant death toll in his unit. 

With Pokrovsk and Kurakhove being two of the hottest points on the battlefield now, the material losses suffered by Russia during these past two months have been staggering, with shocking total numbers of around 200 tanks, over 650 armored vehicles, and 65 large artillery systems. These figures, based on data compiled by open-source analysts such as Jakub Janovsky, highlight the unsustainable rate at which Russia is burning through its equipment. Compounding this issue is the state of Russia’s production capabilities. Soviet-era stockpiles are dwindling, and the current production rates of tanks and armored vehicles are insufficient to replace losses. Even with priority given to frontline areas, these will likely have long-term consequences on Russia’s ability to maintain its operations.

Despite these sacrifices, territorial gains have been minimal. Over September and October, Russian forces captured roughly 1,500 square kilometers—less than a third the size of the relatively small American state of Delaware. Most of these advances occurred in open fields and small settlements, with significant battles fought near Kupyansk, Vuhledar, Selydove, and Kurakhove. While Russian forces recently seized Vuhledar and Selydove after more than 2 years of intense fighting, these gains do not represent operationally significant advances and come at a heavy price. 

At the same time, Russia’s capacity to sustain these operations is increasingly strained. Daily casualty rates of over 1,200 soldiers and the associated depletion of equipment place immense pressure on military and industrial resources. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently emphasized that such loss rates are unsustainable, even in the short term.

Manpower shortages exacerbate these challenges. Reports indicate that the Russian military is struggling to recruit enough soldiers to replace those lost on the frontlines. President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged labor shortages and the country’s dependence on migrant workers to fill gaps in industries. This labor scarcity extends to military recruitment, with coercive measures increasingly used to press migrants into service.

The offensives near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove provide a snapshot of the broader dynamics at play in the war. Despite deploying substantial resources, Russia has struggled to make meaningful progress. Russian advances have come at a painfully slow pace, achieved at the expense of massive casualties and equipment losses. These assaults have also been marked by poor coordination and reliance on outdated tactics, further limiting their effectiveness. The Institute for the Study of War predicts that the offensive Russia started in the summer of this year will culminate soon, as its reserves are nearly exhausted.

The immense toll of the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove offensives raises critical questions about Russia’s military and political future. Casualties of this magnitude are unsustainable, particularly given the Kremlin’s reluctance to initiate mass mobilization. While an involuntary reserve call-up could temporarily replenish manpower, it would not address the deeper issues of recruitment and industrial capacity. This move will also likely erode domestic support for the war, even among Putin’s traditionally loyal nationalist base.  

For Ukraine, these developments offer both challenges and opportunities. The ability to withstand relentless Russian assaults demonstrates the effectiveness of Ukraine’s defense strategy and the importance of international support, whose continuation will be crucial in sustaining Ukraine’s defensive efforts and enabling potential counteroffensives.  

Overall, the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove offensives highlight the inherent unsustainability of Russia's current military strategy. The staggering combination of soaring casualty rates, devastating equipment losses, and negligible territorial gains paints a bleak outlook for Moscow's ambitions in Ukraine. As the conflict grinds on, many analysts argue that the central question is no longer whether Russia can achieve its objectives but rather how long it can endure its current rate of attrition.

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