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Today, we will discuss how the Ukrainians forced a decrease in the Russian usage of aerial guided bombs in the last weeks, significantly relieving the pressure not only from Ukrainian troops on the front but also from Ukrainian civilians.
Russian glide bombs have posed a considerable challenge to Ukrainian forces, as they are not only inexpensive but also effective for destroying entrenched positions and breaking through defensive lines. Their lethality increased exponentially when Russia began equipping them with guidance kits, transforming their large stockpile of Soviet-era unguided aerial bombs into semi-modern precision-guided munitions. This allowed the Russians to deploy large quantities with greater accuracy and from longer ranges, deepening the threat to Ukrainian troops and infrastructure. Their small size makes them difficult to detect on radar, and the lack of propulsion leaves no heat signature for heat-seeking man-portable air defense systems to lock on to, which, combined with their launch from relatively safe distances behind the front lines, complicates interception.
However, recent trends indicate a notable decrease in the frequency of these strikes. Data from the Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russian forces launched a total of 431 glide bombs in the first 12 days of December 2024, which is almost a 3 and a half times decrease compared to 1,472 launched in the first 12 days of the previous month. Understanding the reasons behind this shift requires examining Ukraine's defensive strategies and the various factors limiting Russia's capacity to sustain such attacks. In an ideal scenario, the most effective counter would normally involve targeting the aircraft equipped to launch these bombs—either in the air, which can be difficult as Russians launch these bombs from up to 50 kilometers behind the frontline, or on the ground. There are several factors behind the decline in Russian strikes, which the Ukrainians exploited to mitigate this growing threat.
Firstly, Russian forces appear to be depleting their preexisting stockpiles of aerial bombs suitable for glide bomb conversion. According to Ukrainian sources, Russia has intensified its use of glide bombs to such an extent that it is now relying on newly produced munitions manufactured only days before deployment. This reliance on ongoing production suggests a strain on Russia’s ability to maintain a steady supply of these bombs, particularly in light of Ukrainian strikes disrupting production and logistics chains.
Secondly, Ukraine’s focus on attacking Russian depots and logistical hubs has significantly hindered the Russian supply chain of glide bombs and guidance kits. Strikes on ammunition warehouses have forced Russian forces to reorganize and disperse their logistics, complicating the timely delivery of these critical components to frontline aviation. This has directly contributed to the reduced frequency of Russian glide bomb attacks.
Thirdly, one of the most impactful factors has been Ukraine’s use of ATACMS for strikes on Russian territory. Following the lifting of range restrictions on November 17, 2024, Ukrainian forces began targeting Russian airfields and logistics hubs deep within Russian territory. This development coincides with a sharp decline in the number of Russian glide bomb strikes. By forcing Russian aircraft to operate from airfields farther from the front lines, these strikes have increased the operational challenges for Russian close-air support missions, reducing their ability to deliver glide bombs effectively.
Lastly, due to the winter season, adverse weather conditions have also decreased the frequency of these strikes as they hamper the effectiveness of Russian surveillance drones, which are crucial for providing real-time targeting data. Without accurate reconnaissance, the precision of glide bomb strikes diminishes, making their deployment less effective. Furthermore, Ukraine’s successful campaigns against Russian reconnaissance drones have further limited their impact, with an increasing number of Russian drones being successfully intercepted and brought down by Ukrainian FPV drones.
Overall, the decline in Russian glide bomb strikes reflects the operational challenges Russians face and the effectiveness of Ukraine's countermeasures and deep-striking campaigns. Exhausted stockpiles and disrupted logistics have reduced Russia’s capacity for air strikes, as Ukrainian strikes on supply chains and airbases have shifted the dynamics. Despite this, the threat persists as Russia continues to produce and deploy these munitions. For Ukraine, maintaining pressure remains vital, as long-term solutions, including advanced Western fighter jets and electronic warfare tools, could further neutralize this threat.
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