Russian Offensives Stalling Across the Frontline: What’s Next?

Today, we will discuss the massive Russian losses and logistical issues, how they compare to the relatively small Russian gains in 2024, and how these are the driving factors behind the failing Russian theater-wide efforts and the possible culmination of their offensive at Pokrovsk. 

For the past year, Russians have attempted to maintain the theater-wide initiative and launched massive front-wide offensive operations in pursuit of this. Through this, Russian forces are trying to outlast Ukraine and its Western allies in a war of attrition, betting on Ukrainian manpower reserves and Western equipment deliveries running out before the Russians do. 

While Western military aid deliveries have continued, and Ukraine has been utilizing these to their best effect, for example, by launching the incursion into Kursk, the quantity of equipment being delivered is still not enough for Ukrainians to decisively shift the balance on the battlefield, as even the Kursk front has mainly devolved into attritional Russian assaults. 

And while Ukraine is working hard to remedy this issue, they are increasingly suffering manpower shortages on the front line, causing gaps to appear, which Russian infiltration groups eagerly take advantage of. 

However, despite Russian territorial gains of approximately 4,000 square kilometers in 2024, seemingly indicating that Russians are on the winning hand, context, as always, is crucial to understand these numbers correctly. The Ukrainian general staff has reported that Russians suffered over 430,000 casualties in 2024, in exchange for approximately 4,000 square kilometers gained, which, for comparison, is less than half the size of Puerto Rico or just under double the surface area of Luxemburg. In the past year, Russians have also lost up to 3,600 tanks, and 8,900 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers. 

These losses are not without consequence; a Russian military analyst reported that due to Russians conducting constant attacks across the frontline, Russian forces could not build up any strategic reserves in 2024. He continued by stating that the current Russian offensive operations are, quote, “eating up reinforcements like crazy.” 

Looking at the leading Russian operational objective, Pokrovsk, the result of these losses becomes shockingly apparent. Despite Russians suffering over 15,000 casualties in this direction in January alone, Russian forces have not made any gains here in the last two weeks, and the daily number of Russian assaults here is nearly half of what they were in January and December. 

Russian lines are becoming increasingly thin, and a growing number of Russian soldiers on the front lines are not combat-ready, with wounded soldiers being sent into battle on crutches or in casts. 

This has even allowed Ukrainians to launch counterattacks and retake several crucial positions to set Russians even further back from their goal of taking Pokrovsk. 

Seemingly, the Russian offensive toward Pokrovsk is nearing its culmination point and might be closer to it than previously thought. Besides the immense Russian losses in manpower, Ukraine is also conducting a silent but deadly effort in the Russian rear, striking vast numbers of Russian logistical transports. 

Every week now, Russians are sharing one or several videos of them walking and driving past new, so-called roads of death, filled with destroyed wrecks of Russian transports. 

The abundance of footage has shown how Russians have been relying increasingly on civilian vehicles to fill the gaps in their logistical capabilities. 

However, recent publications show that even this is not enough to compensate for their losses, as Russian soldiers posted videos and pictures of them receiving donkeys and horses from the Russian Ministry of Defense to use as transport for supplies. 

Overall, Russian offensive efforts are not just stalling at Pokrovsk; Russians are suffering similar issues in every other sector of the front, making no to very little progress at an enormous cost. 

Interestingly, many regions have already been deprioritized as any available forces are being concentrated in key sectors to maintain an offensive stance.

While Russians maintain significant pressure in several key sectors of the front, the number of daily Russian assaults is dropping fast across the board, and Ukrainians have already rotated several brigades off the frontline. After over a year of constant and intense fighting, the stabilizing frontline allows them to finally take the time to rest, recuperate, reorganize, and get ready for the next phase of the war, as Ukraine is planning to enter any future negotiations from the best position possible.