50 Tanks and BMPs, and HUNDREDS of Soldiers SHREDDED IN 1 DAY!

Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from the Zaporizhia direction. 

Here, after failing to make ground west of Orikhiv, Russian forces gambled on something bigger, a massive mechanized assault launched from the south and east. But what began as their boldest push in Zaporizhia in years ended in disaster, as nearly an entire battalion was shredded by Ukrainian artillery, drones, and anti-tank fire before reaching its objective.

The goal of the Russians is to achieve a longstanding operational objective and take the town of Orikhkiv before a ceasefire can freeze the frontlines. Orikhiv is a relatively small town of nearly 14 thousand people pre-war, but it is the largest and most strategically important settlement in this sector due to the many open fields here. Therefore, it is of high importance to both sides for its ability to accumulate a large number of forces.

The Russians previously tried to achieve a breakthrough near Stepove and Mali Shcherbaky to flank and approach Orikhiv to the west, but did not achieve further gains than their initial element of surprise had given them. So instead, they are now trying to approach the city from the south and east by conducting the largest mechanized assault seen in Zaporizhia in years.

The main advantage of the Russian forces is to the east of Orikhiv, which consists of an interconnected line of settlements from the town of Polohy to the prefrontal village of Novokarlivka, that is 16 kilometers away from the town. This allows Russians to conceal soldiers and armored vehicles relatively close to the frontline, and use the urban layout as a cover for movement until they reach Ukrainian positions.

However, while Polohy serves as a vital logistical hub just behind the frontline, the town sits dangerously close to Ukrainian artillery guns. This proximity places Russian staging areas within range of Ukrainian artillery, rocket systems, and accompanying reconnaissance drones. Furthermore, Ukrainian forces hold robust defenses in Mala Tokmachka, enforcing lethal fire control on any advancing Russian units.

South of Orikhiv, Russian troops around Kopani, Novoprokopivka, and Robotyne have virtually no cover to conceal their advance. The terrain, made up of open fields and settlements completely reduced to rubble during Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive, along with dense minefields, makes any assault costly from the start. Additionally, Russian assault groups must gather all the way in Tokmak, 23 kilometers from the front, stretching Russian logistics and allowing for easy detection by Ukrainian drones. The moment those columns roll into the open, Ukrainian artillery and drone crews stand at the ready to cut them down.

Russians initiated their mechanized assault with over forty armored vehicles, dozens of buggies and motorbikes for reconnaissance, and a total of 320 soldiers, making up almost a full battalion combined with rear support elements. They launched their assaults from two pincers, from Kopani to Novodanylivka in the south and from Polohy towards Mala Tokmachka to the east.

Geolocated footage from the southern axis shows tanks spearheading Russian assaults, using their heavy armor and mine rollers to clear a path through the minefields, with the BMP's spaced out around 30 meters apart to avoid becoming bunched up targets. However, in the open fields, Ukrainian drones were able to detect the first wave already 8 kilometers behind the front line, directing drones and artillery to dismantle the vehicles one by one. 

Subsequent waves did not fare much better, as Russian armor detonated on landmines, got hit by FPV's and anti-tank-guided missiles, while the infantry on top was eliminated by the intense artillery barrages following the convoy all along the way. 

On the eastern axis at Mala Tokmachka, Russian mechanized units drove into concealed Ukrainian anti-tank missile emplacements, while being immobilized in minefields along the roads and fields. Eventually, some BMP's came close enough to engage Ukrainian positions with their autocanons, however, as soon as they became stationary, precise artillery fire tore the vehicles apart, killing anyone still inside or near the vehicle. 

Overall, the Russians launched the largest mechanized assault seen here in years, losing over a battalion of forces, without even coming close to their objective of advancing towards Orikhiv. Ukrainian soldiers on the ground report that the assault captured no new positions, and that Russians sustained a casualty rate of over 70%, meaning Russians won’t have the necessary forces nearby to launch an effective follow-up assault with.