.svg){kind=small}
Today, we will discuss the fall of Velyka Novosilka, focusing on the far-reaching implications and long-term developments related to it in the context of the broader frontline.
As reported, Ukrainian forces have completed their withdrawal, leaving the town entirely under Russian control. However, the Ukrainians still managed to spoil the local Russian victory by successfully leaving the city on time and saving the lives of its defenders, which means that the Russian inability to fully encircle the area and destroy all defenders has allowed these Ukrainian troops to reposition on the dominant high ground beyond the river lines.
This new defensive stance and the Mokri Yali River provide Ukrainian armed forces with a strategic advantage, enabling them to launch counterattacks to disrupt Russian advances and fortify their positions for future operations. Moreover, this creates a dilemma for the Russian commanders on how to move forward in the region.
At the same time, Russia is heavily exaggerating the significance of its capture of Velyka Novosilka, aiming to shape Western perceptions ahead of potential peace talks. The Russian Ministry of Defense is giving an unusual level of attention to this minor gain, portraying it as a major victory to push the narrative that Ukraine is losing. However, Russian progress in western Donetsk Oblast remains slow, and further advances are uncertain exactly due to the abovementioned challenging terrain, including river crossings that have historically troubled Russian forces. This information campaign seeks to weaken Western support for Ukraine by creating the illusion of unstoppable Russian momentum.
The first possible option for the Russian commanders will be to try and force the next Ukrainian line of defense northwest of Velyka Novosilka. However, due to the features of the terrain and the lack of reserves to start such a difficult battle at the time, many analysts have issued skepticism that the Russians will start this operation right now.
Most likely, the Russians will consolidate in Velyka Novosilka and adapt to the current frontline, launching smaller probing attacks and keeping some pressure on the Ukrainian defenders without launching any larger major offensive operation. The larger network of Ukrainian defensive positions northwest of Velyka Novosilka can also contribute to this decision-making process, as Ukrainians have set up a defense-in-depth behind the town to prevent any larger Russian breakthrough.
This is a prelude to the more likely Russian course of action and their second option, which is similar to their actions at Kurakhove, where after capturing the town, they lacked the resources and manpower necessary to push decisively forward, opting to relocate forces to Pokrovsk instead. Similarly, the seizure of Velyka Novosilka will present a decision to the Russian military command on whether to redeploy elements of their Eastern Military District from the Velyka Novosilka area to other operational efforts that may take priority.
With Russian forces on the brink of seizing Toretsk completely in the coming days, Russians might opt to redeploy their forces from around Velyka Novosilka to here, ahead of a possible renewed effort to advance in the direction of Kostyantynivka. The Institute for the Study of War has previously assessed that Russians will likely intend to exploit the seizure of Toretsk to push further west around key local roads. Russian advances in this direction have historically been slow as their forces fought through built-up urban areas. Still, they may begin to advance relatively more quickly once they break out of Toretsk into the more open fields west of the settlement.
This is also in line with the Russian military command’s main operation objective in Donetsk Oblast since February 2024: to seize Pokrovsk. With all attempts to this date failing in front of the strong Ukrainian defense of the city, this makes a redeployment of selected troops from Velyka Novosilka to Pokrovsk also highly likely as a vital addition of more forces to complete this task.
Overall, the strong Ukrainian positions behind Velyka Novosilka will most likely hinder any Russian attempts to continue pushing in this direction. This will lead to the transfer of Russian forces in other priority directions, indicating that they are running dangerously low on reserves and are shrinking their theater-wide offensive efforts to achieve specific operational goals with their limited resources.
.jpg)
Comments