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Today, we will discuss the Russian plan to take the remaining part of the Donetsk region by attempting a decisive push at Toretsk, what the situation there currently looks like, and what are the possible next Russian steps.
In the summer of 2024, Russian forces intensified their operations around Toretsk, a strategically significant urban center in the Donetsk region. This escalation aimed to reduce Ukraine's ability to launch artillery strikes on critical Russian rear areas near Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk and advance their strategic goal of consolidating control over Donetsk Oblast. The decision to focus on Toretsk reflected the town’s importance as a gateway to the western regions of Donetsk and the highway network connecting key Ukrainian defensive hubs.
Despite Russian boasts of controlling 90% of Toretsk, independent assessments and visual confirmations tell a different story. The Institute for the Study of War estimates that Russian forces control approximately 70% of the settlement as of January. This discrepancy highlights the grinding nature of urban combat, where advances are incremental, and claims often serve information operation purposes more than reflecting ground realities. Geolocated footage confirms limited Russian progress in northern Toretsk, including areas along Kvitkova Street, but not the sweeping dominance Russian sources suggest.
Recently, Russian forces have adjusted their assault approach in Toretsk. After weeks of deploying small teams of around five soldiers, they now attack in platoons of up to 20 personnel, hoping to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. Poor weather conditions, including fog, have allowed Russian forces to attempt infiltration operations, though these conditions also hinder their logistics.
The Russians aim to break out of Toretsk's urban area and push into the open rural terrain to the west. Such terrain has proven advantageous for Russian forces in other sectors, such as Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, where mechanized units achieved more rapid progress in fields and smaller settlements compared to urban environments like Chasiv Yar or Bakhmut.
Capturing Toretsk would allow Russian forces to push further west toward Shcherbynivka and the T-05-16 highway connecting Toretsk to Kostyantynivka. Kostyantynivka is a key part of Ukraine's fortress belt; a line of heavily fortified cities and positions stretching through Donetsk. If Russian forces succeed, they could threaten Ukrainian positions in Kostyantynivka and disrupt defensive lines stretching toward Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk. This would also allow Russia to deploy artillery and drones within range of Ukrainian cities, complicating all efforts to maintain control over the region.
Although Russian forces currently lack the strength to pose a significant threat to Kostyantynivka, this could change if reinforcements are redirected from other frontline sectors. Russian military command has previously demonstrated a willingness to consolidate forces for high-priority operations, and Toretsk’s proximity to Ukraine's fortress belt makes it a potential candidate for such prioritization.
Russian advances in Toretsk have been slow, with six months of grinding combat yielding limited progress. By comparison, Russian forces achieved faster advances in open terrain, such as the 18 kilometers gained in the fields west of Selydove since October 2024. This contrast underscores the challenges of urban warfare, and the limitations of the forces currently deployed in Toretsk, including the 51st Combined Arms Army and elements of the Central Military District.
If the Russian military command decides to bolster its operations in Toretsk, it may redeploy units from other sectors, such as Pokrovsk or Kurakhove, once operational objectives there are achieved. However, such moves carry risks, as shifting forces could weaken Russian efforts elsewhere along the extensive frontline. Another option could involve deprioritizing offensive operations in less critical areas, such as Kupiansk, to free up reinforcements for Toretsk.
Overall, the outcome of the battle for Toretsk will significantly impact the trajectory of Russia’s campaign in Donetsk Oblast, as success there would provide a staging ground for further operations toward Kostyantynivka and beyond, potentially compromising Ukraine's defensive lines in the region. However, the high cost of urban combat and the need for reinforcements present significant hurdles for Russian forces, with the current stalemate in the city reflecting the general rhythm of the war. Whether Russia’s push at Toretsk leads to a decisive breakthrough, or will stall in the face of Ukrainian resistance, remains to be seen, but its outcome will shape the future of the Donetsk campaign.
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