Russia’s Next Big Push: Kostyantynivka in the Crosshairs

Today, we will discuss how the Russian military command is reportedly shifting forces from Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove toward Kostiantynivka, signaling a potential shift in its priorities. These efforts strengthen the suspicion that the Russian political leadership is not interested in any real peace talks but is just using the talks as a smoke cover while preparing for the next big push on the battlefield.

Recent reports indicate that Russian forces are moving elements of the 8th Combined Arms Army, including infantry, tank, and artillery regiments, from Kurakhove toward Toretsk. 

This redeployment coincides with intensified Russian operations in the Chasiv Yar area, a strategically important town controlling access to the belt of fortress towns of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka.

Additional reports indicate the movement of Russian units from the 20th and 150th Motorized Rifle Divisions to the Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk directions, with estimates suggesting that 14,000 to 16,000 troops are already redeployed. 

These units are expected to attempt advances along key highways leading toward Kostyantynivka.

This suggests that Russia may be setting the stage for an eventual push toward Kostyantynivka—one of Ukraine’s most heavily fortified strongholds in Donetsk Oblast. The Russian command appears to be attempting to stretch Ukrainian defenses by pressuring both Chasiv Yar and the Toretsk-Pokrovsk axis simultaneously.  Given previous patterns of Russian offensives, analysts believe that Kostyantynivka could become the primary objective of Russia’s 2025 summer campaign, no matter the outcome of the battle for Pokrovsk.

Over the past two to three weeks, Russian advances south and southwest of Pokrovsk have slowed significantly. Russian forces have faced increasing difficulties north of Kotlyne and west of Udachne, where Ukrainian counterattacks and fortified defenses have slowed their momentum. While this could indicate the culmination of their offensive in the area, it is also possible that the Russian high command has decided to deprioritize further reinforcement of this sector in favor of preparing for an eventual push on Kostyantynivka. 

This would not be the first time Russia has shifted its focus after encountering stiff resistance, and the lack of reinforcements to the Russian grouping south of Pokrovsk suggests that Russian military leadership may already be looking ahead to its next objective rather than committing additional resources to an increasingly costly battle.

Russia’s apparent goal is to eliminate Ukrainian positions southwest of Toretsk before making a push toward Kostyantynivka. 

If Russian forces can secure the area around Pleshchiivka and the T-0504 highway, they will have a more direct route to advancing on the fortress city from multiple directions.

The redeployment of forces toward Kostyantynivka highlights Russia’s commitment to a prolonged campaign aimed at capturing Ukraine’s defensive stronghold in Donetsk Oblast. 

This fortress belt represents a formidable obstacle to Russian advances. By first prioritizing Kostyantynivka, the Russians aim to systematically dismantle Ukraine’s defensive lines, town by town.

However, despite what Russian commanders are planning, Russian forces have faced significant issues in sustaining a multi-year, multi-axis offensive in the past, with Russians often having to reduce their goals in order to walk away with any success. Previous battles, such as those for Bakhmut and Avdiivka, required months and years of brutal attritional warfare, and Kostyantynivka will be even more challenging. 

Ukrainian forces have had years to fortify the city, and Russia’s reliance on costly infantry assaults and increasing shortage of armored vehicles makes it unlikely that they will achieve a rapid breakthrough.

Overall, the combination of factors, redeployments from Kurakhove, slowing advances near Pokrovsk, and intensified operations around Toretsk, points to Kostyantynivka as the next major Russian objective. Regardless of whether Pokrovsk falls into Russian hands, Russian forces will likely pivot toward Kostyantynivka as part of a broader effort to weaken Ukraine’s fortress belt.

Despite their preparations, achieving major success in this direction will be difficult because of Ukraine’s layered defenses, which will subsequently stall any Russian advance and give Ukrainians even more time to strengthen their positions. 

This also underscores that Russians are preparing for a continuation of the war, possibly indicating a farce in ongoing diplomatic negotiations