Russia’s Allies Are Turning Away One by One

Today, we will discuss how Russia’s network of allies is crumbling due to its obsession with conquering Ukraine at all costs. Russia’s behavior has disillusioned partnering countries, showing that any of them can be sacrificed to further Russian goals. Since launching its full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022, Russia has found itself increasingly isolated on the world stage. Once able to count on strategic allies, Moscow's aggressive foreign policy and war-driven diplomacy have led to a gradual breakdown of key partnerships. 

As Russia continues its costly and prolonged war, its relationships with key allies like Iran, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and even its long-controlled region of Chechnya are deteriorating.  

Iran was one of Russia’s strongest backers, supplying Shaheed drones, artillery shells, and military advisors to aid the war effort. Tehran even helped Moscow set up domestic drone production, reinforcing its ability to sustain long-range strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. This partnership appeared solid, based on mutual opposition to the West and shared geopolitical ambitions.

However, tensions recently escalated between Iran and the U.S. due to Iranian support for terrorist organizations in the Middle East, like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.

To appease the United States under Donald Trump, in the hope of ensuring a favorable peace deal in Ukraine, Moscow has distanced itself from Iran and even publicly criticized Tehran’s actions towards Israel.

This shift is a significant betrayal of Iran, which had provided critical military support for the Russian war effort in Ukraine. If this escalates, Russia risks losing access to vital supplies and will further reduce its ability to project influence in the Middle East, where Iran plays a key role.

Armenia, once a close ally of Russia, has become increasingly disillusioned with Moscow due to its failure to provide meaningful support during conflicts with Azerbaijan. In the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, Russia’s response was limited to sending peacekeepers and offering diplomatic mediation, which ultimately did little to counter the Azerbaijani victory. In 2023, during Azerbaijan’s final offensive to take full control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Russia was even less supportive, being too preoccupied with defending against the Ukrainian counteroffensive to provide military assistance to Armenia, again resulting in an Azerbaijani victory.

Notably, Russia and Azerbaijan strengthened economic ties during this period, repeatedly affirming Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity while remaining silent on Armenia’s concerns. 

Armenia has since distanced itself from the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO, and sought closer ties with the West, even initiating the process of EU ascension. If Russia loses Armenia entirely, it will forfeit a crucial foothold in the South Caucasus, diminishing its regional influence and opening the door for Western or Turkish influence to grow in the region. Additionally, Russia’s credibility as a security guarantor for post-Soviet allies would be severely damaged, prompting other countries to reconsider their reliance on Russia.

Although Chechnya is officially part of Russia, its leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, has ruled it with near-total autonomy while maintaining loyalty to the Kremlin. However, Kadyrov’s trust has been weakening as his health has significantly deteriorated due to serious medical issues. Recently, Russian intelligence services discovered that Kadyrov had been secretly negotiating with Middle Eastern countries to secure asylum for his family after his death.

This revelation has led to tensions between Putin and Kadyrov, who fears that once he is gone, Moscow will revoke Chechnya’s semi-independence and take direct control. However, if Chechnya destabilizes, it could reignite separatist movements, causing a significant headache for the Kremlin at a time when it cannot afford an internal conflict.

Kazakhstan, another former Soviet republic, has also been drifting away from Russia, refusing to recognize Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories and tightening restrictions on the re-export of Western-sanctioned goods to Russia.

In response, Russian nationalist politicians have made claims that northern Kazakhstan, home to a significant Russian-speaking population, should be part of Russia. Using a similar clause of post-Soviet territorial revisions, which Russia also used to justify its annexation of Crimea, Kazakhstan is taking the threat extremely seriously.

To counter this, Kazakhstan has strengthened ties with China and the West, reducing its economic dependence on Russia. If Russia escalates tensions or pursues hostilities, it risks incurring a severe financial and geopolitical blow, as Kazakhstan serves as a key transit hub for Russian trade, disrupting supply chains and further isolating Russia.  

Overall, Russia’s geopolitical alliances are deteriorating as it fixates on conquering Ukraine at the cost of neglecting former partners.

Many of them also see Russia’s abandonment of Syria’s Assad regime as a warning sign: Russia will abandon them in pursuit of other goals.

As a result of this unreliability, former allies are slowly turning to other powers, such as China and Turkey, or seeking partnerships with the West. Ukraine’s ability to stay in the fight is, therefore, slowly but surely undermining the international partnerships that Russia has spent decades solidifying.

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