Inside Russia's Southern Push: The Fight for Strategic Pokrovsk

Today, we will discuss Russia’s intensified offensive effort toward Pokrovsk and how they are trying to leverage their gains at Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka to support these efforts. We will also delve into how Ukraine’s strong defenses and the subsequent Russian failure to achieve their tactical objectives threaten to domino effect the entire Russian effort in southern Donetsk. 

Russians aim to capture Pokrovsk, a key Ukrainian logistics hub vital for regional defense, as part of their broader goal to seize all of Donetsk oblast.  After initial frontal assaults were thwarted by skillful Ukrainian drone units, Russian commanders were forced to reconsider and shift to try to outflank Pokrovsk from the southwest. This would not only cut off valuable Ukrainian supply lines into Pokrovsk but also save them countless soldiers’ lives by not assaulting the heavily fortified urban environment head-on.

Recently, Russian forces intensified their offensive northwest from Selydove, advancing toward Shevchenko and engaging in fierce clashes along roads near Novotroitske as part of an effort to encircle Pokrovsk from the south and west. Exploiting geographical features around settlements like Dachenske and Lysivka, Russian attacks target potential weak points in Ukrainian defenses. However, Ukrainian forces have skillfully countered these advances with coordinated defenses and effective drone warfare, gaining crucial time to fortify Pokrovsk and forcing Russian commanders to adopt a costly southern encirclement strategy. As Ukrainian drones disrupt Russian logistics and mechanized assaults, Russian tactics have shifted to attritional infantry-led assaults using small groups to bypass defenses and spread Ukrainian forces thin. While this approach has created challenges for Ukrainian defenders, the lack of concentrated artillery fire and armor support has also left Russian units highly vulnerable, leading to significant casualties and further degrading their operational effectiveness.

The ongoing assaults on Pokrovsk are linked to parallel efforts around Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka. At Kurakhove, Russian forces have systematically failed to eliminate Ukrainian defensive pockets, even after establishing a presence in Stari Terny and advancing into Dalne.  At the same time, operations near Velyka Novosilka have focused on envelopment strategies after another initial failure with frontal attacks. However, the attempts to encircle the town from the west have been fruitless, and those from the east were cut off by Ukrainian counterattacks. These Russian actions aim to "level the frontline" across the western Donetsk Oblast, allowing them to divert forces toward their Pokrovsk offensive effort. Still, Russians are getting increasingly desperate to achieve these tactical goals before they reach their culmination point. 

Prolonged combat has led to widespread fatigue and attrition among frontline units, undermining operational effectiveness, as Russian forces face severe challenges in sustaining their multi-pronged offensives. The Kremlin’s pursuit of territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast has come at a steep cost, with estimated casualty rates exceeding 1,500 a day and over 45,000 last month alone. These staggering losses stretch Russia’s force generation and logistical capabilities to their limits, risking a culmination of their offensive efforts over the entire frontline.

Russian commanders may even need to preemptively redeploy additional units from the Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka directions, in order to capitalize on recent tactical gains at Pokrovsk. However, this can only be done after Russians have secured their main tactical objectives there, or these offensives could fall short of their success. Prolonged battles have also left these units with significantly decreased combat effectiveness, which could hinder their ability to support the Russian advance toward Pokrovsk. The Kremlin’s capacity to sustain this attritional warfare remains uncertain, as economic strain challenges its ability to maintain momentum.

Overall, despite the sustained Russian offensive efforts, Ukrainians have launched several precise counterattacks, effectively disrupting the Russian momentum at a very low cost. These actions, along with continued effective defensive operations, are delaying the Russian efforts to rapidly achieve their operational objectives, and consolidate their gains. Russians will likely continue to prioritize the capture of Pokrovsk over their other objectives, as the possibility of a forced ceasefire becomes more likely when Donald Trump takes office late next month. However, the costly nature of these offensives has placed a significant strain on Russian military and economic resources, which could spell disaster for the future of the Russian war effort, if such a ceasefire does not come into fruition. 

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