How Ukraine is Transforming Its Military Production for Long-Term Survival

Today, we will discuss how the Ukrainian government is trying to make the country as independent as possible from weapon and ammunition deliveries from other countries. We will explore what measures Ukrainian officials have taken to expand the defense industry, what partnerships they have built after the start of the full-scale war, and what they plan for the upcoming months to meet the challenge of modern warfare. 

In the wake of Russia's 2022 invasion, Ukraine has undertaken significant efforts to enhance its defense industrial base. Amid prolonged conflict, soon entering its third year and possibly shifting geopolitical dynamics, this expansion is crucial for maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty and bolstering its military capabilities against Russian aggression. These efforts target several key problems that Ukraine must solve urgently.

Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Oleksandr Kamyshin announced a major milestone: Ukraine has commenced serial production of NATO-standard 155mm artillery shells. Historically, Ukraine never produced these shells domestically; however, production began in small volumes in September 2023, marking a significant leap forward in aligning its military capacity with NATO standards. 

Additionally, the local defense firm Ukrainska Bronetekhnika signed an agreement with Czech holding CSG to produce 155mm shells. This collaboration includes the supply of components and licensing production. Manufacturing preparations are underway, with production set to commence in early 2025. CSG’s plans extend beyond ammunition, aiming to produce spare parts for armored vehicles in Ukraine. The venture is expected to yield 100,000 shells in 2025, ramping up to over 300,000 by 2026.

This surge in domestic production is a crucial step because of two reasons. Firstly, it ensures that Ukraine’s military can sustain itself amid this prolonged conflict. Secondly, the 155mm shells represent a significant upgrade over Soviet-era munitions and provide Ukraine with an independent capability to produce vital ammunition as all artillery systems the country receives from its Western partners use this caliber. It is also used by the 2S22 Bohdana, the wheeled self-propelled howitzer which Ukraine started developing and producing in 2018. Currently, between 10 and 15 units are produced each month for the needs of the armed forces.

The Franco-German defense consortium KNDS has also deepened its collaboration with Ukraine. By establishing KNDS Ukraine LLC, the group seeks to enhance cooperation with the Ukrainian government and local armaments industry. The subsidiary’s focus includes maintaining and repairing Leopard tanks, CAESAR artillery systems, and producing 155mm artillery shells and spare parts, further strengthening Ukraine's domestic capabilities. Because of the significance, the minister for Strategic Industries Herman Smetanin revealed ambitious goals for the nation's defense industry. Production of defense-related goods is expected to reach $20 billion in 2024, a sixfold increase from the previous year. This surge follows a threefold expansion in 2023. Such rapid growth underscores Ukraine's commitment to building a resilient defense industry that can meet the demands of a modern battlefield.

To achieve this, Ukraine’s strategy includes partnerships with international defense companies, facilitating technology transfer and localized production. One such collaboration is with American company AeroVironment, which plans to produce Switchblade 600 drones in Ukraine. The company has already delivered an undisclosed number of these loitering munition systems to support the Ukrainian army.  The agreement, signed at the International Defense Industry Forum in Kyiv, signals a growing focus on localized drone production to reinforce Ukraine's unmanned aerial capabilities. 

Another notable partnership is with BAE Systems. The defense giant intends to service and localize the production of M777 lightweight towed howitzers in Ukraine. This initiative, led by BAE’s Director for Central and Eastern Europe, Christian Seear, was also confirmed at the Kyiv forum. The collaboration aims to not only increase Ukraine's artillery production capabilities but also to significantly reduce the reliance on external supply chains.

The next important step for Ukraine is to secure superiority in the field of drone warfare. Drones have become a focal point in the modern battlefield, and Ukraine is keen to maintain an advantage in this arena. President Volodymyr Zelensky announced in October 2024 that Ukrainian companies are capable of producing up to four million drones annually. Contracts to produce 1.5 million units have already been secured for 2024. This domestic effort contrasts with Russian plans to increase drone production to 1.4 million units in 2024, underscoring Ukraine's focus on retaining aerial superiority. Additionally, Ukraine has successfully tested a domestically produced ballistic missile, further reflecting the country’s push to diversify and enhance its military capabilities.

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated that in 2025, Ukraine will further expand the production of drones, long-range weapons, and ballistic missiles. This growth is supported by $4 billion in current industry investments, with plans for even greater funding next year. By focusing on the development of domestic drones and advanced weaponry, Ukraine aims to free itself from the reliance on uneven deliveries from Western partners.

We can easily say that Ukraine’s efforts to expand its defense industry toward self-sufficiency and long-term resilience are not only a strategic shift but a matter of life and death. In 2023, domestic weapons production increased threefold, with further growth of twofold achieved in the first eight months of 2024. This progress demonstrates Ukraine's resolve to meet the demands of war independently. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal emphasized this commitment by allocating $7 billion for military procurement in the draft 2025 state budget—a 65% increase from 2024.

However, Ukraine’s path to defense self-sufficiency is not without challenges. Despite impressive growth, it remains heavily reliant on Western military assistance for critical support and is under heavy pressure due to the ongoing conflict and the need to achieve results quickly. Of course, there is always the risk that Russian armed forces can target production facilities or attempt assassinations of Ukrainian engineers which has already happened several times in the last 10 years. The transition to full independence will require sustained Western backing to close gaps in capability and ensure Ukraine can liberate territories occupied by Russian forces.

Overall, Ukraine’s defense industry is undergoing a rapid transformation, driven by necessity and strategic ambition. Through domestic production of artillery shells, expansion of drone capabilities, and strategic partnerships with international defense firms, Ukraine is building a resilient industrial base. While challenges remain, these efforts underscore Ukraine’s determination to secure its sovereignty and strengthen its military position on the global stage.

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