After Losing 35% of Its Fleet, Russia Seeks Black Sea Ceasefire

Today, we will discuss the recently agreed naval truce between Ukraine and Russia. How realistic it is in the context of the current state of the naval war in the Black Sea, and how Russia is attempting to regain access to international markets through the truce.  

Concluding the negotiations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Ukraine have reached a naval truce in the Black Sea, marking a rare diplomatic development in the ongoing war. The agreement includes commitments from both sides to halt military operations at sea and protect port infrastructure.

Additionally, Ukraine has secured the right to defend itself if Russia violates the agreement by moving its warships beyond the eastern Black Sea. The truce also reaffirms the previous ceasefire on strikes against energy infrastructure. 

It is worth noting that Ukraine had been conducting a highly successful naval campaign against Russia in the Black Sea. The Ukrainian navy, unable to match Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in conventional naval power, turned to asymmetric warfare, deploying naval drones in large-scale operations.

The latest development in this field is the ability of these drones to launch FPV drones mid-mission, allowing Ukraine to launch a devastating operation of strikes targeting Russian air defense assets on Crimea. 

Such sophisticated operations caused significant damage as naval kamikaze drones also sunk over a third of the Russian black sea fleet, which forced Russia to withdraw its remaining ships to ports in the east. This represented a significant Ukrainian victory, as Russia's naval dominance had been destroyed by a country with no standing conventional fleet of its own.

Adding to Ukraine’s capabilities, Ukraine recently unveiled a new high-tech naval drone just out of development, "Katran,” which carries torpedoes, machine guns, autocannons, and MANPADS, while also featuring electronic warfare systems and countermeasures, with a range of over 1,000 kilometers. This technology would have underlined Ukrainian naval dominance around the peninsula.

However, with the truce in place, Ukraine has agreed to halt its highly effective naval attacks, a major concession given that its operations had already pushed the Russian fleet into retreat and devastated Russian air defense assets in Crimea.

For Russia, the truce presents an opportunity to regain access to global trade, particularly in agriculture and fertilizers, as the country is desperate to circumvent Western sanctions and the increasingly heavily patrolled Baltic Sea, which have severely restricted its ability to export goods via sea routes. 

In contrast, the Black Sea remains a viable alternative. Turkey and Romania, while allied with Ukraine, have not aggressively targeted Russian shipping in the way NATO states bordering the Baltic Sea have. Russia hopes that the naval truce will enable its cargo vessels to navigate the Black Sea and into the Mediterranean with less interference. This is crucial, as Russia lacks viable warm-water ports outside this region that do not freeze over during the winter. The U.S. has also signaled its willingness to facilitate Russian access to international shipping through payment systems and banks, which were previously under complete Western sanctions.

On the other hand, Ukrainian exports, particularly grain shipments, have faced constant threats from Russian naval operations. With a potential truce, Ukraine could see a return in stabilization of its maritime trade routes. The truce also dictates that Russia should halt all attacks on Ukrainian port facilities, saving millions of Ukrainians from daily Russian bombardments. However, a key concern remains whether Russia will break the truce or not; Ukraine has every reason to be skeptical, as similar arrangements, such as the grain deal, have been repeatedly undermined by Russian aggression. President Zelensky has already expressed concerns about whether Russia will truly honor the truce and stated that if it is broken, he will turn to the United States for more weapons and harsher sanctions. 

Overall, the naval truce is a limited agreement that does not signify the end of the war but instead aligns with the broader American strategy of achieving gradual ceasefires, ultimately leading to direct peace negotiations. The involvement of third-party monitors, possibly from Turkey and Saudi Arabia, could help ensure compliance.

If Russia violates the truce, Ukraine is prepared to resume attacks, and with new advanced naval drones, Ukraine’s ability to strike back will be stronger than ever.