The Cost of 36 Assaults per Kilometer: Russia’s War Math Fails

The past several months have marked a dramatic escalation in Russian offensive operations across the Ukrainian front, signaling a shift in the war’s tempo that may reshape the strategic landscape before any ceasefire negotiations materialize. From Sumy to Zaporizhia, and from Pokrovsk to Liman, Russian forces have launched relentless assaults in what appears to be a last-ditch effort to seize territory before lines harden. Yet, despite record-high numbers of attacks, Russia's actual territorial gains have sharply diminished—raising serious questions about the sustainability and effectiveness of Moscow’s current approach. As Ukrainian defenses hold firm and drone warfare exacts a growing toll on Russian troops and equipment, the escalating tempo is looking less like a breakthrough and more like a slow bleed.