Russian Strategy in Donetsk: Incremental Advances or Major Offensive?

Recent advances in the Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka directions reveal the evolving nature of Russia’s military strategy in Ukraine. While Russian forces have increased their pace of advances in southeastern Ukraine compared to earlier in 2024, their progress remains far slower than the rapid gains at the start of the war. Analysts suggest three potential Russian courses of action: bypassing Velyka Novosilka to threaten Ukrainian supply lines, advancing toward Andriivka to envelop Ukrainian forces, and moving west from Selydove to close Ukrainian pockets. Despite some recent gains, these efforts reflect a methodical exploitation of tactical vulnerabilities rather than large-scale breakthroughs, with major Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk Oblast remaining firmly defended.

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