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In this report I will review the most significant changes over the past few days along the entire front line. This time, we focus on developments in Kursk, Liman, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
Starting with Kursk, there have been no substantial changes along the front line since our last update, where Russian forces pressed east of Malaya Loknya, taking positions in the wooded areas just east of the settlement. The only reported change was a marginal advance west of Malaya Loknya, where Russian forces moved southward to capture a small settlement in the name of Russkoe Porechnoe. All in all, this still marginally narrows the Ukrainian salient and raises concerns about the sustainability of Ukrainian positions between Malaya Loknya and Pogrebki.
In the area south of Sudzha, Ukrainian forces have confirmed the recapture and consolidation of Makhovka, holding the line firmly with the help of logistical support from Sudzha. Recent reports indicate that this Ukrainian advance was aided by a devastating HIMARS strike on a critical Russian command post in Belaya, southeast of Sudzha. This strike has caused significant disruption and disorganization among Russian and North Korean troops in the area, even leading to incidents of friendly fire.
In summary, there have been few changes in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces hold the front line firmly while targeting high-value objectives in the rear. However, the prospects for maintaining the northern salient in the mid-term remain uncertain due to the narrowing salient and the growing risk of encirclement.
Moving to the Liman direction, updates from the Russian advance on the west bank of the Zherebets River show little change in their efforts to advance from Ivanivka toward Kolodiazi. Fighting is ongoing in the tree lines between these settlements. A potential breakthrough here is concerning, as it could lead to the encirclement of Terny from an unexpected direction, allowing Russian forces to take the heights along the west bank of the Zherebets River. These heights, for many months critical to the defense of Terny, could become an asset for a Russian offensive.
For now, Russian progress remains slow, as continuous counterattacks and tank raids by the Ukranian 60th Infantry Brigade on Ivanivka and Kolodiazi are inflicting devastating losses to the Russians, which on the other hand, have very limited availability of mechanized advances on the west bank of the river.
In summary, the situation in Liman remains mostly unchanged, with a limited Russian presence on the west bank of the river and logistical support far from ideal, thus giving Ukrainian forces good chances to restore the situation.
Now turning to Toretsk, Russian forces aim to capture the city to open a path toward Kostiantynivka and Chasiv Yar, as well as encircle Pokrovsk from the north to cut vital logistical routes. The situation in the city is concerning, with Russians launching a significant intensification of their infantry assaults in the area, now with assault groups of up to 20 soldiers at a time. Russian infantry is actively using infiltration tactics and private housing for concealment to gradually gain further control of the city. Ukrainians are carrying out constant drone strikes against these Russian infiltration groups using FPV drones and grenades dropped from Mavic drones, which is doing massive work to grind down Russian advances, once again underscoring the critical role of drones in Ukrainian military operations.
In the south, Russians continue to launch assaults in the southern microdistrict and toward Shcherbynivka and Leonidivka. However, the Ukrainian 12th Special Purpose Brigade "Azov," among others, showed a highly effective use of resources, personnel, and tactical positioning, effectively halting the Russian advance on the southern flanks, and clearing out Russian presence out of the houses.
In summary, the situation in Toretsk itself has somewhat deteriorated for Ukrainian forces, while Ukrainian positions on the flanks remain secure. This means that the battle is long from over, with Ukrainians being able to launch constant drone swarms to target Russian infantry moving through the city, grinding down Russian reserves here.
Finally, turning to Pokrovsk, the situation has continued to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces. Pokrovsk has become the top priority for Russian forces due to its critical logistical and defensive importance in the region. Following recent Russian advances east of Myrnohrad, additional progress has been confirmed in the southwest of Pokrovsk, where Russian forces are now at the doorstep of Kotlyne. This area features both a secondary road and a railway line with adjacent wooded areas leading directly to Pokrovsk. With these gains, Russians have cut one of Pokrovsk’s supply roads, but several more still remain in operation.
However, the situation is not yet hopeless for the Ukrainians. Firstly, Russian advances southwest of Pokrovsk have not yet reached the last defensive rings around Pokrovsk, suggesting their pace of advance may slow. Similarly, on the eastern vector, Russian forces still face multiple fortified lines designed to prevent the encirclement of Pokrovsk. Secondly, Russian forces are getting farther and farther away from their supply lines in the west, and the Ukrainians are hitting these Russian logistics hard. Recent video evidence from Russian soldiers reports dozens of vehicles and armored vehicles destroyed along Russian supply routes, confirming the constant peppering of Russian logistics with drones and artillery.
In summary, the situation in Pokrovsk remains tense, with new Russian advances increasing the risk of encirclement. However, the situation is far from a collapse, and weeks of intense fighting are expected.
Overall, the situation has remained relatively stable with few changes. In Kursk, Ukrainian forces remain strong around Sudzha but face growing risks in the northern part of the salient. In Liman, the situation remains stable and the Ukrainians still have good chances of pushing the Russians out of their bridgehead at Ivanivka. In Toretsk, Russian forces continue their gradual advance within the city, while Ukrainian forces hold firm in the south and north, using these positions to grind down the Russian offensive. Finally, in Pokrovsk, the situation remains tense as decisive battles loom, with Ukrainian forces determined to prevent the city’s capture at all costs.
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