Comprehensive Battlefront Breakdown: A Strategic Look at Every Front

Today, we will discuss the most interesting developments along the entire front line, focusing on Kursk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.

Starting with the Kursk sector, Ukrainian forces have successfully destroyed a Russian command center and concentration of enemy troops at the eastern part of the salient, subverting Russian attempts to mount any larger counterattacks than just small infantry group assaults. 

Simultaneously, all Russian attempts to unblock the North Korean forces stuck in Nikolske have failed due to the constant Ukrainian drone surveillance and the rapid response reaction of Ukrainian drone operators and artillery crews, dealing heavy losses to the attacking Russians. Russian commanders are even transferring wounded soldiers from other sectors to combat operations in Kursk amidst their rapidly deteriorating reserves. 

South of Nikolske, Russians have had more luck, successfully taking control of Sverdlikovo and pressing east toward Lebedevka. However, the biggest issue is the increasing number of Russian strikes against Ukrainian logistics routes in the rear, mainly targeting the Sudzha-Sumy highway. Russians target these with fiber-optic FPV kamikaze drones, immune to electronic warfare countermeasures, and sometimes even missile strikes as well. 

In summary, the numerous Russian attempts to put the Ukrainians in Kursk under pressure have failed in most directions. However, the capture of Sverdlikovo could lead to more serious problems, as Ukrainian commanders have warned and are actively working to prevent. 

Switching to Pokrovsk, the situation has improved significantly, with Russians making no advances here over the past week and a significant drop in the intensity of their assault operations. This is primarily due to the actions of the Ukrainian defenders, who diverted the enemy’s attention and resources. Instead of launching new attacks, Russian forces are now struggling to reclaim lost positions.

The Russians continue facing severe logistical difficulties in the Pokrovsk area, affecting personnel and equipment supplies. These challenges hinder troop rotations, the evacuation of severely wounded soldiers often left behind, and the supply of ammunition, medical aid, and food. 

Russian forces have resorted to using civilian vehicles, motorized carts, and even donkeys and horses for transportation, a pattern that reflects their deteriorating situation. The Institute for the Study of War assesses that the Russians have already lost 30 to 50 percent of their reserves allocated to this direction in the past months of grinding warfare. 

At the same time, the Ukrainians have continued to capitalize on their advantages and have managed to deal several more blows to the Russians by successfully retaking northern Kotlyne and southern Lysivka in a series of specialized operations, pushing Russians further away from Pokrovsk.

In summary, while the situation in Pokrovsk remains dynamic, the current trend indicates Russians running out of steam, with the initiative in the area firmly in the hands of Ukraine. 

Notably, this shift has been observed since the appointment of General Drapatyi as leader of the Khortytsia Operational-Strategic Group of forces, which takes the largest area of responsibility, spanning from Velyka Novosilka to Kharkiv.

In the direction of Velyka Novosilka, after capturing the settlement, the Russians began stockpiling resources and regrouping in the face of the strong Ukrainian stronghold behind the river. As frontal assaults would have been deadly, the Russians conducted a successful pincer maneuver, building up on their progress from the previous week and causing the Ukrainian flanks to collapse. At risk of coming into an encirclement, the Ukrainians were forced to withdraw to better positions, which led to further Russian advance with the most intense pressure being applied in the direction of Skudne and Burlatske. 

The Russians took partial control of Novocheruvate and are getting dangerously close to Burlatske.

Important to note is that Velyka Novoslika is on the border between the area of responsibilities of two different strategic operation groups: the Khortysia strategic operational group and the Tavrisk strategic operational group. As communication delays can be a key determining factor in coordinating a successful defense, Russians are trying to take advantage of this while it lasts. 

The Ukrainian armed forces are currently undergoing a massive structural reorganization into an army corps structure to alleviate these issues in the future. 

Overall, in Kursk, the Russians have managed to capture the settlement of Sverdlikove but continue to suffer losses in the other directions of the Ukrainian salient to the point that they urgently transferred wounded soldiers from other areas to reinforce their depleting reserves. 

Meanwhile, at Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces continued their offensive actions, successfully pushing the Russians further away from the town and disrupting Russian consolidation efforts.

At Velyka Novosilka, the Russians persisted in their push to the north, aiming to achieve a breakthrough and bypass the strong Ukrainian defense lines in the area.    

‍