Comprehensive Battlefront Breakdown: A Strategic Look at Every Front

In this report, we will review the most significant changes over the past few days along the entire front line. This time, we focus on developments in Kursk, Kupiansk, and Pokrovsk.

Starting in Kursk, the situation presents mixed news, as Russian forces intensified their operations in response to the Ukrainian push toward Bolshoye Soldatskoye. This intensification includes increased Russian air bombardments to an unprecedented level, although military analysts question how long they can keep it up, as Russian stockpiles of glide bombs are now close to empty.

Regarding the Ukrainian offensive in the northeast, Ukrainian forces have managed to maintain their gains north of Martynovka, and fighting continues for Berdin, with the eastern part of the settlement remaining largely under Russian control. This is due to the North Korean human wave assaults tempering the Ukrainian momentum, though at a significant cost in human life. 

It should be noted that Ukrainian soldiers have reported better integration of North Korean assault forces and Russian troops, which now form integrated units. This integration has allowed for improved radio communication, as well as these units now receiving relatively more artillery and armored support. Nevertheless, on a tactical level, Russian forces continue to use these North Korean soldiers primarily as human shields and cannon fodder, sending them out to draw Ukrainian fire.

Russians have also increased their efforts in other areas of the salient’s perimeter. Southeast of Sudzha, Russian forces launched a significant mechanized assault toward Makhnovka, aiming to break through to Sudzha and disrupt Ukrainian logistics in the Kursk salient. Ukrainian forces responded swiftly by deploying armored units from Sudzha, completely neutralizing the attack and eliminating the Russian forces.

On the other hand, the Russians exploited Ukrainian efforts in the northeast to dramatically increase pressure in the northwest, near Malaya Loknya. As the decisive indicator of this “all-in” Russian push, Russians launched a massive assault by mechanized marine forces in six consecutive waves that were ultimately repelled east of Viktorovka. The enemy employed approximately 50 vehicles, while Russian losses in manpower reached nearly an entire company. While these assaults were eventually contained, some Russian advances have been reported to the south, east, and northeast of Novoivanovka. This brings Russian forces dangerously close to the supply road for Ukrainian troops further north in Pogrebki, seriously endangering their presence there in the medium term.

Overall, the situation in Kursk is mixed for the Ukrainians. They have maintained their gains and decisively halted Russian forces north and south of Sudzha but have lost ground in the west, where Russian forces are now dangerously close to Malaya Loknya.

Moving to Kupiansk direction, the temporary calm in recent weeks has been broken by a renewed Russian attack north of the town. Russian forces are attempting to establish a bridgehead across the Oskil River to find more favorable routes to assault Kupiansk from. Over the past few days, the Russians have increased pressure in two directions: one further north near Dvorichne and another south of the settlement, where Russian forces have fortified a position in a large wooded area east of Zapadne. Although Ukrainian forces have expelled the Russians from these areas in the past, there is a risk that Russian forces could consolidate enough personnel and materiel here to maintain the initiative on the west bank of the Oskil River, enabling further advances toward Kupiansk.

In summary, the situation remains largely stable. However, the Russian advances on the west bank of the Oskil River, while still in their early stages and approximately 10 kilometers north of Kupiansk, warrant close monitoring in the coming days due to the risk of dangerous consolidation.

Finally, turning to the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces recently advanced east of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area amid renewed offensive operations in the region, aimed at supporting the envelopment of Pokrovsk from the northeast. The recent intensification east of Pokrovsk indicates that the Russian military command is still considering the envelopment of Pokrovsk as one of their key operational objectives in Eastern Ukraine.

East of Pokrovsk, at Vozdvyzhenka, Russians have crossed the river, and are attempting to reach a vital crossroads to cut the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway. With this action, Russians are trying to cut off Pokrovsk from logistics support from the east. Just west of this area, Russians launched several failed mechanized assaults toward Yelyzavetivka, which were, in the end, defeated and cleared out by Ukrainian forces. 

In summary, after becoming utterly stuck south of Pokrovsk, the Russians turned their sights to the east and are now consolidating control over Vozdvyzhenka, to build a launching pad from where to launch future assaults to try and envelop Pokrovsk from the east.

Overall, the trends observed at the end of last year continue, with Ukrainian forces maintaining their defenses and avoiding collapses, while Russian forces achieve incremental gains by trying to slowly build to achieve their operational goals at a significant cost. In Kursk, the situation is mixed, with better prospects in the eastern sector, but Russian gains west of Malaya Loknya. In Kupiansk, the situation remains stable but at risk of deteriorating if Russian forces consolidate their bridgehead west of the Oskil River. Finally, the situation in the Pokrovsk direction remains challenging for Ukrainian forces, with incremental Russian advances in the east but no imminent risk of a defensive collapse.