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In this report, I will review the most significant changes over the past few days along the entire front line. This time, we focus on the situation in Kursk, Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
Starting from the Kursk direction, the front line has seen no changes in recent hours, indicating that Ukrainian forces have consolidated their advance in Kruglenkoe. This is highly significant as it improves their control over the road from Novoivanovka to Malaya Loknya. The absence of changes reflects a strong level of combat capability and supplies for the Ukrainian side while also confirming that the Russian counteroffensive has largely stalled, with indications that Russian forces may be regrouping and adjusting their strategies. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have not remained idle during this pause, conducting rear-area attacks using HIMARS munitions, including a devastating attack to a Russian base within Lgov.
In summary, the situation in Kursk remains stable, with Ukrainian forces comfortably holding their defensive positions, consolidating gains, and even conducting rear-area strikes on Russian positions.
Moving further south toward Toretsk, the most significant changes along the front line in recent hours have occurred here. The Russian objective is to capture the city as part of their broader efforts to advance across the Donetsk oblast. As previously noted, Russian forces remain largely stalled within the city due to intense urban combat and Ukrainian control over part of the central high-rise district. This stagnation in their central advance seems to have prompted alternative strategies. In recent hours, Russian forces have made progress on the southern flank of the city, advancing approximately two kilometers and capturing the entirety of Nelipivka and Leonidivka.
However, it should be noted that this is not the first time that Russian forces have advanced here and were later forced to retreat. Russian tactics here are based on advancing as far as possible with BMPs to deploy infantry and establish positions along the houses. These positions are then identified by Ukrainian forces, which initiate the counterattack, which mostly relies on Ukrainian tank raids.
In summary, the situation in Toretsk remains stable within the urban area, with back-and-forth fighting on the southern flank
Now turning to Kurakhove, Russian forces are attempting to capture the city to facilitate further advances in the Donetsk region, particularly toward Pokrovsk. The situation for Ukrainian defenses within the city worsened in the past days, as Russian forces advanced over the entirety of the eastern residential half and even part of the western industrial zone. All reports indicate that the battle for Kurakhove has come to an end, since Ukrainians have already withdrawn from the Uspenivka pocket, it is too risky to hold an all-round defense with severed logistics. For this reason, during the week Ukrainians were conducting a controlled withdrawal from Kurakhove to even out the frontline and simplify the defense operations.
Outside the city, the most significant changes have occurred north of the Kurakhove reservoir, where Russian forces have made incremental advances in the area between Petropavlivka and Slovianka, increasing pressure and the risk of encirclement for the entire Kurakhove salient.
In summary, after weeks of intense fighting, the Ukrainian forces were forced to withdraw from Kurakhove, seeking better defensive positions and a simplification of operations.
Finally, we review the situation in Velyka Novosilka, where Russian forces are attempting to capture this critical Ukrainian defensive node as part of coordinated efforts alongside attacks on Kurakhove and Pokrovsk. The situation remains challenging since Russian forces succeeded in cutting the two main roads supplying the city. However, Ukrainians have been holding the line tightly which seems to indicate that Ukrainian logistics is not as compromised as previously thought, and they have a certain level of supply from Pryvilne on dirt roads. In this manner, the situation appears more stable in recent days, as only marginal Russian advances have been reported west of Neskuchne. This limited Russian progress suggests they may opt for an encirclement strategy to avoid costly urban assaults.
In summary, the situation in Velyka Novosilka remains challenging for Ukrainian forces, although the absence of significant changes in recent days indicates some stabilization within the overall grave situation.
Overall, the front line remains stable with reasonable prospects for the Ukrainian side with the exception of the southern Donetsk direction. In Kursk, Ukrainian forces have demonstrated the ability not only to hold defensive positions but also to consolidate recent gains in Kruglenkoe. In contrast, the situations in Toretsk and Kurakhove are progressively deteriorating, although without a collapse of defensive lines. Finally, the situation in Velyka Novosilka remains precarious, but the limited Russian advances in recent days suggest greater stability and indicate that Ukrainian forces will fiercely contest any attempt to take the city.
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