Why the Fall of Velyka Novosilka Won’t Change the War’s Course

Ukrainian forces withdrew from Velyka Novosilka, avoiding encirclement and securing stronger defensive positions beyond the Mokri Yali River. This terrain advantage will make further Russian advances costly and slow.

Russia is overstating the significance of this gain to influence Western perceptions. However, due to difficult terrain and Ukraine’s layered defenses, a major Russian push here is unlikely. Instead, Russia will likely consolidate and shift troops to higher-priority fronts.

With Toretsk near collapse, forces may be redirected toward Kostyantynivka or Pokrovsk, Russia’s primary objective in Donetsk Oblast. This redeployment signals dwindling reserves, forcing Russia to focus on select offensives rather than broad advances.