Ukraine Prepares for All Scenarios as Russia Hesitates on Ceasefire Deal

Today, we will discuss the recently proposed and agreed 30-day ceasefire that came out as a result of the high-level negotiations between the United States and Ukraine in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and how it has introduced a dilemma for Russia.

The United States proposed a 30-day total ceasefire, which Ukraine accepted, despite increasing from the initially proposed ceasefire only in the sea and sky. The decision now rests with the Russian political leadership: either agree to a temporary halt in fighting, allowing both sides to regroup, or continue the war and face renewed Western support for Ukraine.

The meeting in Jeddah was a significant diplomatic event, bringing together senior United States and Ukrainian officials to explore options for de-escalating the hostilities. 

The key outcome was Ukraine’s willingness to accept an American-mediated ceasefire, which would pause all battles on land, in the air, and at sea for 30 days. The discussion also included humanitarian provisions, such as the exchange of prisoners of war, the return of forcibly deported Ukrainian children, the involvement of European countries in the process, and the signing of the crucial rare earth materials deal.

Additionally, the United States immediately lifted its temporary pause on intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine. This decision was interpreted as a direct signal to Russia: American President Donald Trump is serious about this ceasefire, and if Vladimir Putin refuses, Ukraine will receive full-scale support to continue fighting.

While the ceasefire proposal offers a potential step toward peace, it notably avoids the most contentious issue: territory. There was no discussion of Ukraine making territorial concessions, which has been a core demand of Russia. Instead, the American position remains that a lasting peace deal can only be negotiated once the fighting stops.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky clearly stated, “We are ready for peace,” emphasizing that now, the final choice lies with Russia. 

Meanwhile, European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, voiced their support for the ceasefire, calling for security guarantees for Ukraine after any potential peace agreement. Macron even gathered military leaders from 30 countries to again discuss long-term military backing for Ukraine.

However, not everyone in Ukraine sees the ceasefire as a win. Some military officials worry that a pause would give Russia time to strengthen its forces. If Russia uses the time to reinforce its positions and rearm, Ukraine could face an even stronger enemy when fighting resumes.

Russia’s resounding response is yet to be expected, but Russian state media is already shaping the narrative. Many pro-Russian analysts argue that accepting the truce would be a mistake, allowing Ukraine to regroup and rearm under Western protection. Some hardliners even call it a trap, warning that the Americans will abandon peace efforts at the first opportunity.

For Russia, the choice is difficult. If they accept the ceasefire, Ukraine will be able to dig in along the current contact line and receive additional Western weapons, putting them in a stronger position on the battlefield and projecting more strength in future negotiations. If Russia rejects the ceasefire, it risks isolating itself further on the international stage and increasing its losses due to the threat of ramped-up support for Ukraine. Vladimir Putin must also consider Donald Trump’s warning: If Russia refuses to negotiate, the fighting will continue, and Washington will escalate its support for Ukraine.

Overall, Russia’s next move is still expected at this stage, but the ball is now in its court, and its decision will shape the next phase of the war. The situation has already improved for Ukraine, with full US intelligence sharing and military assistance restored, reinforcing the country’s position on the battlefield. If Russia agrees to the ceasefire, the focus will shift to negotiations and whether a lasting agreement can be reached. 

If Russia rejects it, the war will continue with Ukraine stronger and better supplied with increased US support. One thing is certain: this ceasefire proposal has changed the dynamics of the war, and whatever Vladimir Putin decides, the consequences will be significant.