Comprehensive Battlefront Breakdown: A Strategic Look at Every Front

This report reviews the most significant changes over the past few days along the entire front line. This time, we focus on developments in Kursk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.

Starting with Kursk, Ukrainians have effectively forced the Russians to terminate their offensive toward Malaya Loknya, maintaining both their core defensive positions and their gains in the northeastern part of the salient. 

On the western flank of the salient, the Russian offensive wave, where they tried to finally break through to Malaya Loknya, has now ended, with the intensity of Russian assaults dropping drastically. Ukrainians have launched counterattacks to clear out the preliminary Russian positions and restored their defensive capabilities, pushing the frontline back near Kruglenkoe. 

The decisive factor in the failure of the Russian western assault was the Ukrainian push to the northeast. This forced the Russians to divert a significant number of forces to prevent a further Ukrainian breakthrough, which would have been disastrous for the Russians as they did not have the men to guard such an extended frontline. 

Overall, Russians being forced to overstretch their forces, combined with a complex Ukrainian defensive operation in the western part of the salient, has resulted in the full culmination of the Russian attempt to break through to Malaya Loknya. This culmination is now forcing Russians to conduct an operational pause to reorganize their forces and recuperate from their losses. At the same time, Ukrainians have largely been able to preserve their forces, and have held the core of their defensive line and their gains in the eastern part of the salient. 

Turning to Pokrovsk, Russian forces are exerting intense pressure to encircle this critical logistical hub, putting the most pressure on the southwestern flank of the city. 

Ukrainian commanders report that Russian infantry assaults are being conducted in small groups of two to three soldiers spaced 15 to 20 meters apart to minimize the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drones. Surviving attackers regroup at staging points until enough personnel are amassed to initiate an assault on Ukrainian positions. This approach avoids using the now scarce Russian armored vehicles in assaults, limiting their use to logistical and rotation roles only.

Additionally, Russian forces are attempting to compromise supply lines between Pokrovsk and Pavlograd. The road is becoming increasingly contested, as Russian forces have reportedly started employing fiber-optic-controlled FPV drones to target Ukrainian logistics. However, recent statements made by Ukrainian soldiers on the ground, indicate that this deployment is still minimal due to a lack of experienced Russian drone operators. In any case, Ukrainian forces still maintain logistical routes to the north.

On the eastern vector, Russian forces continue efforts to consolidate along the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka road. A prominent Ukrainian military analyst recently noted that Russian priorities include capturing the elevated trench network near the T-05-04 road junction. This advantageous position gives Ukrainian forces a tactical edge on the eastern flank, and Ukrainians have already utilized this to clear out several Russian mechanized advances long before they could reach them.

On the map, reports indicate minor Russian advances west and northwest of their west flank, suggesting an intent to create a wide flanking maneuver encompassing Pokrovsk and its two inner defensive rings. Following their advance to Kotlyne, additional Ukrainian reserves have been deployed in the area to stabilize the situation, and have reportedly already pushed Russians out of Uspenivka. 

In summary, the situation in Pokrovsk remains challenging but stable for Ukrainian forces. Russian advances are gradual but at a great cost, and the city is not yet at risk of encirclement, although intense fighting is expected to continue.

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Finally, in Velyka Novosilka, after an operational pause, Russian forces have resumed operations intending to take Velyka Novosilka. Recent reports from both Russian and Ukrainian sources confirm a Russian advance on Neskuchne and Vremivka in the south. With this progress, Russian troops are now at the outskirts of Velyka Novosilka, and an assault on the city is expected in the coming days.

In response, Ukrainian forces have regrouped across the Mokri Yaly River within Velyka Novosilka to contain Russian advances from the south and southeast while holding the Kashlahach River to counter eastern incursions. For now, it remains unclear whether Ukrainian forces retain logistical access via secondary roads from the northwest or the extent of resource stockpiles prepared within the city.

In summary, the situation in Velyka Novosilka is tense for Ukrainian forces, given the imminent likelihood of a Russian urban assault.

Overall, the trends of recent weeks continue, with both sides adapting their tactics to gain decisive advantages. Ukrainian forces maintain a very stable situation in Kursk. In Pokrovsk, Russians are consistently gaining terrain, but at an incredibly slow pace and a significantly high cost, with new Ukrainian reserves recently being deployed to help counter Russian advances in the south. Lastly, Velyka Novosilka faces a difficult situation as the potential for urban combat looms in the coming days. 

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